ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its predictions for the 2026 college football season, and the outlook for Big 12 rivals BYU and Utah is promising. Both teams are expected to be contenders for the conference championship, with BYU ranked No. 20 and Utah No. 31 nationally.
BYU's FPI score of 13.1 projects an impressive 8.7 wins, a 1.4% chance of an undefeated season, and a 93.1% likelihood of achieving six wins and bowl eligibility. The Cougars have a 16.5% chance of winning the Big 12, a 25.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 2.2% chance of reaching the national championship game. These numbers represent a significant improvement from last season, when BYU was projected for 8.0 wins and had a 12.6% chance of making the playoff.
The Cougars' strength of schedule is a notable factor, currently ranked 55th among Big 12 programs. This is a significant improvement from last year, when BYU was 74th, with only Houston having a lower strength of schedule. The Cougars' non-conference schedule includes a high-profile game against Notre Dame, ranked No. 3 in the FPI, on October 17. Their conference games will feature a showdown with Utah, ranked No. 31, on November 7.
Utah, ranked No. 31 in the FPI with a score of 8.5, is also projected for a strong season. The Utes are expected to achieve 7.7 wins, with a 0.4% chance of an undefeated season and an 83.7% likelihood of six wins and bowl eligibility. Utah has a 5.9% chance of winning the Big 12, a 11.1% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 0.6% chance of reaching the national championship game. Last season, the Utes exceeded expectations, ending with an 11-2 record and a top 15 ranking.
The Utes' strength of schedule is ranked 63rd among Big 12 programs, which is favorable for a team returning key players. This is a slight improvement from last year, when Utah was ranked 58th. The Utes' non-conference schedule includes a challenging game against Arkansas from the SEC, ranked No. 47 in the FPI, on September 12. Their conference games will feature a match-up with BYU, ranked No. 20, on November 7.
Both BYU and Utah have the third-best odds in the Big 12 to win the conference and make the College Football Playoff. Only Texas Tech and BYU stand above them, with the Red Raiders having a 57.9% chance of making the playoff and an 8.5% chance of reaching the national title game. The strength of schedule for both teams is a key factor in their success, with BYU ranked 55th and Utah 63rd.
In summary, ESPN's FPI predictions highlight the potential for both BYU and Utah to have successful seasons in the Big 12. The Cougars and Utes are expected to contend for the conference title, with strong odds of making the College Football Playoff and reaching the national championship game. Their schedules, including high-profile non-conference games, will play a crucial role in determining their final standings.
